| Rank | Site |  |  |  |  | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FX Street | 6 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 36 |
| 2 | Daily FX | 6 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 36 |
| 3 | Global Forex Trading | 6 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 36 |
| 4 | Forex Factory | 4 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 33 |
| 5 | Babypips | 5 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 32 |
| 6 | Action Forex | 4 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 32 |
| 7 | Forex News | 6 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 32 |
| 8 | CMS Forex | 5 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 32 |
| 9 | FX Solutionshttp://www.fxsolutions.com/ | 4 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 31 |
| 10 | Forex TV | 5 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 31 |
| 11 | Forex Markets | 4 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 28 |
| 12 | Global View | 5 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 28 |
| 13 | Finotec | 4 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 27 |
| 14 | Forex Directory | 4 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 27 |
| 15 | FX Wordshttp://www.fxwords.com/ | 6 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 27 |
| 16 | Grace Cheng: Power Forex Trading | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 26 |
| 17 | The Forex Project | 4 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 26 |
| 18 | Forex Blog | 5 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 |
| 19 | Forex Bastards | 3 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 24 |
| 20 | Secret Forex Society | 4 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 24 |
| 21 | Peter Bain: Forex Trading Commentary | 3 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| 22 | MTI Forex Tips | 4 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 24 |
| 23 | Pip Trader | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 21 |
| 24 | Forex Realm | 4 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| 25 | Free Forex Charts | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
Forex Leaders
1 comments
Pakistan Open Market Exchange Rates
0 comments
September 15 2009
Remittance | Buying | Selling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Pakistan Inter Bank Exchange Rates
1 commentsSeptember 15 2009
| Currency | Bid | Ask | ||
| EUR | 118.9334 | 119.8377 | ||
| GBP | 135.2393 | 136.1517 | ||
| SGD | 56.953 | 57.7623 | ||
| AUD | 69.9201 | 70.6409 | ||
| CAD | 74.9897 | 76.0304 | ||
| SAR | 21.7561 | 21.9665 | ||
| OMR | 211.655 | 213.098 | ||
| DKK | 15.9489 | 16.9018 | ||
| KWD | 283.3614 | 285.336 | ||
| HKD | 10.2086 | 10.9641 | ||
| AED | 22.3 | 22.45 | ||
| USD | 82.4 | 82.7 | ||
| ||||
Business News
0 comments
September 12 2009
KARACHI: Pakistani stocks ended up on Friday on buying from foreign investors but off its early gains as local institutions booked profits as the benchmark index crossed the 9,000 points. The Karachi Stock Exchanges (KSE) 100-share index closed 62.58 points, or 0.70 percent, higher at 9,058.77 on turnover of 157 million shares. The index has gained 54.45 percent this year after losing 58.3 percent in 2008. Local investors succumbed to the psychological barrier of 9,000 points and booked profits, despite continued foreign interest, said Asad Iqbal, managing director at Ismail Iqbal Securities Ltd. The KSE-index has advanced over several sessions as some foreign investors were drawn by Pakistans improving macroeconomic fundamentals. According to official data, foreign investors bought shares worth $95.3 million in August and $88.81 million in the first ten days of September. Among blue chips, Oil and Gas Development Co. Ltd. rose 2.25 percent to 111.99 rupees, National Bank of Pakistan, gained 1.61 percent to 78.89, and Pakistan Oilfields, ended 2.72 percent higher at 216.19 rupees. In the currency market, the rupee ended weaker at 82.82/87 to the dollar compared with Thursdays close of 82.77/87 due to payments for imports. Dealers said the rupee was expected to face downward pressure because of import payments. However the rupee has been supported by remittances from Pakistanis working overseas. Remittances rose 31.78 percent to a record $780.53 in August, compared with $592.30 million in the same month last year. The rupee has lost 4.5 percent this year after losing 22.12 percent in 2008.
LONDON: The dollar fell to the lowest levels for months against the euro and the yen on Friday as upbeat economic data reduced demand for the safe-haven greenback, dealers said. The euro rose to a near nine-month high of 1.4627 dollars in early London trading. The dollar dropped to 90.98 yen -- the lowest level since mid-February. In later London trade, the European single currency stood at 1.4591 dollars compared with 1.4583 dollars in New York late on Thursday. Against the Japanese currency, the dollar fell to 91.04 yen from 91.74 yen on Thursday. Gold headed back towards 1,000 dollars an ounce as the weak US unit made the metal cheaper for buyers holding rival currencies, pushing up demand, dealers said. "The dollar continues to move lower setting a new low for the year against the euro... while the dollar has fallen more sharply against the yen," said Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency research at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London. "Risk appetite has been supported by mostly positive economic data from China," he added. Chinese economic numbers fuelled dollar weakness on Friday and investor risk appetite, underlining hopes of a global economic recovery, said Rabobank International economist Jeremy Stretch. China said industrial activity expanded by 12.3 percent last month and retail sales jumped 15.4 percent, while urban fixed asset investment rose 33 percent in January-August due to massive government spending on construction. Traders snapped up the currencies of countries exporting commodities to the Asian powerhouse, notably the Australian dollar. In contrast to the upbeat Chinese data, Japan revised down its estimate of second-quarter growth to 0.6 percent, from an initial estimate of 0.9 percent. Most analysts meanwhile expect the dollar to weaken further amid a growing sense that recovery from the worst global economic crisis in decades is taking root. With the economic outlook brightening, traders tend to shun the dollar in favor of riskier currencies that appeared more profitable, like the euro. Elsewhere, the British pound strengthened after the Bank of England on Thursday left its monetary policy unchanged, holding its key lending rate at a record low 0.5 percent and maintaining emergency stimulus measures to prevent the economy from sliding deeper into recession. In London on Friday, the euro was changing hands at 1.4591 dollars against 1.4583 dollars late on Thursday, at 132.89 yen (133.81), 0.8747 pounds (0.8756) and 1.5148 Swiss francs (1.5141). The dollar stood at 91.04 yen (91.74) and 1.0380 Swiss francs (1.0381). The pound was at 1.6687 dollars (1.6651). On the London Bullion Market, the price of gold jumped to 998.88 dollars an ounce from 990.75 dollars an ounce late on Thursday.
KARACHI: The Karachi share market recorded an inflow of $28.559 million of foreign portfolio investment during the week ended on September 11, 2009. According to National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited (NCCPL), the net inflow of foreign portfolio investment at the local equity market increased to $90.829 million during 11 days of the current month. An inflow of $94.635 million of this mode of investment was recorded in the preceding month. The offshore investors bought shares worth $51.0 million and sold shares worth $22.4 million, resulting in net buying of $28.6 million during the week. The week started with a positive trend and $2,026,896 of foreign portfolio investment was seen on Monday. An inflow of $9,650,737 was recorded on Tuesday, while $3,007,925 came on Wednesday. An inflow of $11,850,059 of this mode of investment was recorded on Thursday and $2,023,902 came on Friday.
ISLAMABAD: National Assemblys Standing Committee on Finance has been told that House Building Finance Corporation (HBFC) has gone technically bankrupt, as its more than half loans could not be recovered, Geo News reported Friday. Fozia Wahab presided over the meeting of NAs standing committee to mull over HBFC affairs. The Federal Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin told the committee that 65 percent of the corporations loans could not be recovered, adding 26 percent shares of the corporation would be handed to the private sector and the institution would be further strengthened. MD of the Corporation Azhar Jafery told the committee that the corporation suffered los of Rs2 billion during the last five years and the 65 percent of un-recovered loans are worth over Rs6.25 billion. The MD said 56 percent of HBFC employees want to take retirement instead of working and taking modern training.
KSE100-index closes at 9059 points
KARACHI: Pakistani stocks ended up on Friday on buying from foreign investors but off its early gains as local institutions booked profits as the benchmark index crossed the 9,000 points. The Karachi Stock Exchanges (KSE) 100-share index closed 62.58 points, or 0.70 percent, higher at 9,058.77 on turnover of 157 million shares. The index has gained 54.45 percent this year after losing 58.3 percent in 2008. Local investors succumbed to the psychological barrier of 9,000 points and booked profits, despite continued foreign interest, said Asad Iqbal, managing director at Ismail Iqbal Securities Ltd. The KSE-index has advanced over several sessions as some foreign investors were drawn by Pakistans improving macroeconomic fundamentals. According to official data, foreign investors bought shares worth $95.3 million in August and $88.81 million in the first ten days of September. Among blue chips, Oil and Gas Development Co. Ltd. rose 2.25 percent to 111.99 rupees, National Bank of Pakistan, gained 1.61 percent to 78.89, and Pakistan Oilfields, ended 2.72 percent higher at 216.19 rupees. In the currency market, the rupee ended weaker at 82.82/87 to the dollar compared with Thursdays close of 82.77/87 due to payments for imports. Dealers said the rupee was expected to face downward pressure because of import payments. However the rupee has been supported by remittances from Pakistanis working overseas. Remittances rose 31.78 percent to a record $780.53 in August, compared with $592.30 million in the same month last year. The rupee has lost 4.5 percent this year after losing 22.12 percent in 2008.
Dollar hits nine month low against euro
LONDON: The dollar fell to the lowest levels for months against the euro and the yen on Friday as upbeat economic data reduced demand for the safe-haven greenback, dealers said. The euro rose to a near nine-month high of 1.4627 dollars in early London trading. The dollar dropped to 90.98 yen -- the lowest level since mid-February. In later London trade, the European single currency stood at 1.4591 dollars compared with 1.4583 dollars in New York late on Thursday. Against the Japanese currency, the dollar fell to 91.04 yen from 91.74 yen on Thursday. Gold headed back towards 1,000 dollars an ounce as the weak US unit made the metal cheaper for buyers holding rival currencies, pushing up demand, dealers said. "The dollar continues to move lower setting a new low for the year against the euro... while the dollar has fallen more sharply against the yen," said Derek Halpenny, European head of global currency research at The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London. "Risk appetite has been supported by mostly positive economic data from China," he added. Chinese economic numbers fuelled dollar weakness on Friday and investor risk appetite, underlining hopes of a global economic recovery, said Rabobank International economist Jeremy Stretch. China said industrial activity expanded by 12.3 percent last month and retail sales jumped 15.4 percent, while urban fixed asset investment rose 33 percent in January-August due to massive government spending on construction. Traders snapped up the currencies of countries exporting commodities to the Asian powerhouse, notably the Australian dollar. In contrast to the upbeat Chinese data, Japan revised down its estimate of second-quarter growth to 0.6 percent, from an initial estimate of 0.9 percent. Most analysts meanwhile expect the dollar to weaken further amid a growing sense that recovery from the worst global economic crisis in decades is taking root. With the economic outlook brightening, traders tend to shun the dollar in favor of riskier currencies that appeared more profitable, like the euro. Elsewhere, the British pound strengthened after the Bank of England on Thursday left its monetary policy unchanged, holding its key lending rate at a record low 0.5 percent and maintaining emergency stimulus measures to prevent the economy from sliding deeper into recession. In London on Friday, the euro was changing hands at 1.4591 dollars against 1.4583 dollars late on Thursday, at 132.89 yen (133.81), 0.8747 pounds (0.8756) and 1.5148 Swiss francs (1.5141). The dollar stood at 91.04 yen (91.74) and 1.0380 Swiss francs (1.0381). The pound was at 1.6687 dollars (1.6651). On the London Bullion Market, the price of gold jumped to 998.88 dollars an ounce from 990.75 dollars an ounce late on Thursday.
$28.559 million foreign investment in a week
KARACHI: The Karachi share market recorded an inflow of $28.559 million of foreign portfolio investment during the week ended on September 11, 2009. According to National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited (NCCPL), the net inflow of foreign portfolio investment at the local equity market increased to $90.829 million during 11 days of the current month. An inflow of $94.635 million of this mode of investment was recorded in the preceding month. The offshore investors bought shares worth $51.0 million and sold shares worth $22.4 million, resulting in net buying of $28.6 million during the week. The week started with a positive trend and $2,026,896 of foreign portfolio investment was seen on Monday. An inflow of $9,650,737 was recorded on Tuesday, while $3,007,925 came on Wednesday. An inflow of $11,850,059 of this mode of investment was recorded on Thursday and $2,023,902 came on Friday.
HBFC technically bankrupt: NA body told
ISLAMABAD: National Assemblys Standing Committee on Finance has been told that House Building Finance Corporation (HBFC) has gone technically bankrupt, as its more than half loans could not be recovered, Geo News reported Friday. Fozia Wahab presided over the meeting of NAs standing committee to mull over HBFC affairs. The Federal Finance Minister Shaukat Tarin told the committee that 65 percent of the corporations loans could not be recovered, adding 26 percent shares of the corporation would be handed to the private sector and the institution would be further strengthened. MD of the Corporation Azhar Jafery told the committee that the corporation suffered los of Rs2 billion during the last five years and the 65 percent of un-recovered loans are worth over Rs6.25 billion. The MD said 56 percent of HBFC employees want to take retirement instead of working and taking modern training.
Forex News
0 commentsSeptember 15th, 2009
The Daily Forecaster: USDJPY
Price: 91.03Bias: There seems to be risk for a test of 91.35-40 but then lower to the 89.52 target
Daily Bullish
The 90.20 level held a second time, apart from 1 extra pip lower, and spent the day looking supported. The top at 91.12 looked as if it should be enough to send it lower but we're back close to that level and if we see this break then look for follow-through to 91.40 which I feel will hold fast and cause a reversal back lower. In the mean time the 90.61-78 area looks set to support and we could see some range trading ahead of European open. Only an unexpected break above 91.40 would trigger extension higher to 92.03-25 which would hold.
Medium Term Bullish
14th September: Friday's direct break lower basically brings the 88.39-52 and 88.83 targets into play. Most projections identify the higher range as the most likely target for a reversal higher. First target will be the 92.03-25 area.
Daily Bearish
The 90.90 resistance broke but price was then held by 91.12 but still the preferred downside didn't follow-through. Now we have to see whether we see direct follow-through lower or an earlier blip up to 91.40. Either way I remain bearish for 89.52. Thus, look for bearish reversal patterns at 91.40 or hopefully we'll see a shorter term triangle develop in the 90.60-91.12 range. If this breaks on the downside then look for follow-through down to the 90.19 low and subsequently the 89.52 target (max 89.39.) While there is a lower target at 88.82 I doubt we shall see this.
Medium Term Bearish
14th September: The downside targets are close - the favored being at 89.39-52 while there is a lower risk, but valid target at 88.83. In this broad area we should see a reversal higher. However, given the bearish daily momentum I feel this is likely to be a correction only.
Foreign Exchange Market Commentary
EUR/USD closed slightly higher on Monday as it extends this month's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the rally off August's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2008-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that an important top has been posted.
Forex Exchange Morning Report
Risk sentiment picked up last night, after being initially dented by yesterday's China-US trade spat which spilled over to risk currencies and Asian equities during the Sydney session. The S&P500 opened lower, to 1035, but spent the session recovering to close up 0.6% with no US data or major events (President Obama's speech was on regulatory reform) to guide proceedings. Downward momentum in oil waned, slipping only 0.4%, but copper sagged again by 1.3%. Natural gas rose 13% on winter weather speculation, last Friday having made a seven year low. US 10yr notes sold off from Sydney's closing 3.33% yield to 3.41%, reverting to the usual correlation with equities.The US dollar is slightly weaker than Sydney's closing level. EUR threatened a reversal, but recovered after noon London to reach 1.4653, currently at 1.4610. Eurozone IP revealed the pace of decline has slowed a little. GBP rallied from a 1.6522 base to 1.6630, but slipped back to 1.6560. The yen rally since early August was checked at 90.21, the sell-off taking it to 91.13.
The Sydney session saw the extent of the AUD sell-off, a slow recovery taking it from 0.8545 to 0.8624.
NZD spent the evening congesting above the 0.6964 low. AUD/NZD built on its domestic session gains to 1.2300. No US data to report.
Euroland industrial production falls 0.3% in July, keeping a place the mildest of downtrends in output after the collapse around the turn of the year, although the annual pace of decline has eased from -16.7% to -15.9%.
The EU Commission published updated forecasts for 2009 GDP growth, although the full-year Euroland bottom line was unrevised at -4.0%, compared to the May forecasts. That compares to Westpac's -4.1% forecast for this year.
Canadian capacity utilisation drops from 70.2% to 67.4% in Q2, to an alltime low, reflecting the steep decline in economic activity in recent quarters. This provides a considerable degree of anti-inflationary slack in the economy which helps make the Bank of Canada's conditional commitment to keep rates low until mid 2010 a low risk strategy.
Outlook
The AUD and NZD rallies remain intact. Our tactical recommendation remains to buy on dips, particularly near the 0.8500 and 0.6900 key support levels. The RBA minutes today will be closely watched for clues regarding the timing of the first rate hike.Events Today
| Country | Release | Last | Forecast |
| NZ | Q2 Real Manufacturing Sales | 0.20% | – |
| Aus | Q2 Dwelling Commencements | –4.0% | –1.0% |
| RBA Minutes of September Meeting | |||
| US | Aug PPI/Core | –0.9%/–0.1% | 1.2%/0.0% |
| Aug Retail Sales/Ex Auto | –0.1%/–0.6% | 2.0%/0.5% | |
| Sep NY Fed “Empire State” Index | 12 | 18 | |
| Sep IBD-TIPP Economic Optimism | 50.3 | 52 | |
| Jul Business Inventories | –1.1% | –0.7% | |
| Eur | Q2 Labour Costs %yr | 3.70% | 3.40% |
| Ger | Sep ZEW Survey | 56.1 | 70 |
| UK | Aug RICS House Price Balance | –8.1% | 0.00% |
| Aug CPI %yr | 1.80% | 1.30% | |
| Jul House Prices %yr | –10.7% | –9.5% | |
| Can | Jul Auto Sales | –0.6% | 5.00% |
| Q2 Labour Productivity | 0.30% | 0.80% |
Yen Is Oversold | | | |
| The dollar traded mixed on Monday, higher against the yen and commodity currencies but lower versus the euro. The greenback was supported by increasing risk aversion as a trade dispute between China and the US increased the threat of protectionism. The S&P 500 was up 6.61 points to 1,049.34. The euro rose despite the declines in eurozone industrial production and employment. Sterling was pressured by a report predicting the UK housing slump will resume next year. The Australian dollar fell for a second day and the Canadian dollar declined. The USD/JPY rose for the first time in five days, supported by intervention threats. Japan's Finance Minister Yasutake Tango said officials are paying close attention to the yen. In addition, Goldman Sachs said it does not see a prolonged USD/JPY weakness. The trend is certainly negative, but the pair is oversold measured by the RSI and also near the important 90-area support. Therefore, we expect the USD/JPY to move sideways or higher this week  Financial and Economic News and CommentsUS & Canada
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| EUR/USD | USD/JPY | GBP/USD | USD/CHF | USD/CAD | AUD/USD | EUR/JPY | |
| Primary Trend | Positive | Negative | Positive | Negative | Negative | Positive | Neutral |
| Secondary Trend | Positive | Negative | Neutral | Negative | Neutral | Positive | Neutral |
| Outlook | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Neutral | Positive | Neutral |
| Action | Buy | None | None | Buy | None | Buy | None |
| Current | 1.4623 | 90.91 | 1.6569 | 1.0341 | 1.0824 | 0.8619 | 132.96 |
| Start Position | 1.4575 | N/A | N/A | 1.0385 | N/A | 0.6601 | N/A |
| Objective | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Stop | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 0.8070 | N/A |
| Support | 1.4400 | 89.50 | 1.6450 | 1.0300 | 1.0750 | 0.8450 | 130.00 |
| 1.4000 | 87.00 | 1.6200 | 1.0000 | 1.0550 | 0.8200 | 128.00 | |
| Resistance | 1.4650 | 92.00 | 1.7000 | 1.0600 | 1.1100 | 0.8700 | 139.00 |
| 1.4900 | 94.50 | 1.7200 | 1.1000 | 1.1300 | 0.8800 | 145.00 |
Capital Market Services, L.L.C.
www.cmsfx.com
©C2004-2005 Globicus International, Inc. and Capital Market Services, L.L.C. Any information in this report is based on data obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Capital Market Services, L.L.C. with regard to the accuracy of the data. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. Capital Market Services, L.L.C. accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any expense, loss or damages arising out of, or in any way connected with, the use of all or any part of this report. No part of this report may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the permission of Capital Market Services, L.L.C.
September 14th, 2009
| NBP Exchange Rates |
KARACHI, Sep 14 (APP): Treasury Management Division of National Bank of Pakistan (NBP) Monday issued the following Exchange rates: Selling Buying Buying TT & OD TT Clean OD/T.CHQ U.S.A. 82.95 82.75 82.57 U.K. 137.81 137.48 137.17 EURO 120.64 120.35 120.08 CANADA 76.49 76.30 76.10 SWITZERLAND 79.83 79.64 79.43 AUSTRALIA 71.09 70.92 70.73 SWEDEN 11.79 11.76 11.73 JAPAN 0.9170 0.9148 0.9124 NORWAY 13.93 13.89 13.86 SINGAPORE 58.18 58.04 57.89 DENMARK 16.21 1 6.17 16.13 SAUDI ARABIA 22.12 22.07 22.01 HONG KONG 10.70 10.68 10.65 CHINA 12.15 12.12 12.09 KUWAIT 289.62 288.92 288.16 MALAYSIA 23.70 23.64 23.58 NEWZEALAND 57.87 57.73 57.57 QATAR 22.78 22.72 22.66 U.A.E. 22.58 22.53 22.47 KR WON 0.0677 0.0675 0.0673 THAILAND 2.443 2.437 2.431 CONVERSION FOR FC DEPOSITS, DBC/FCBC, SPECIAL USD BOND & PROFITS THEREON (EXCLUDING FE-25 DEPOSITS) US DOLLAR POUND STERLING EUR JAPANESE YEN 82.8522 138.3631 120.9973 0.9110 |
Foreign Exchange Market Commentary
EUR/USD closed slightly lower due to light profit taking on Friday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the reaction low crossing are needed to confirm that an important top has been posted.
USD/JPY closed sharply lower Friday and tested the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a double bottom with July's low has been posted. .
GBP/USD closed higher on Friday as it extended this week's rally. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends this week's rally, August's high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term bullish outlook in the market.
USD/CHF closed slightly higher on Friday as it extends this week's breakout below the 75% retracement level of the 2008-2009-rally crossing. Profit taking tempered early session gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bearish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term bottom has been posted.
Market Morning Briefing
EQUITIES
The Dow (9605.41) closed 1% higher last week. The trend looks bullish with strong Support at 9000. A host of important data releases this week could spell the direction of the stocks for the rest of the month.
The Nikkei (10186.63) has dipped 2.47% today on stronger Yen. Last week the Nikkei rose 2.5% and the stregth in Yen is likely to keep the equities pressured. However, there's important Support at 9900-10000 this week. The Hang Seng and the Straits are also trading lower by 1% today. The Shanghai (3004.31) has on the other hand has risen beyond 3000 today. It may face Resistance near 3050 (the 50% retracement of the recent fall from 3468 to 2639).
The Sensex (16264.30) has risen 3.67% last week and closed below the important channel Resistance near 16350 on the weely charts. A break past the Resistance this week could make it very bullish. But for today, we shall have to see whether it follows the Shanghai or the Nikkei. To see the chart of Sensex, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/sensexcandle.shtml#candle
COMMODITIES
Crude (68.41) fell sharply on Friday from the high of 72.90 following the concern over energy demand. Significant Support is seen at 68, a break below which might pull it down towards 65-63 in the coming days.
Gold (1003.30) closed above 1000 on Friday and is continuing to trade above 1000. Resistance is seen at 1015 a break above which might take it up towards the next significant Resistance seen at 1025. To see the Resistances on the Gold graph click on the following link:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/goldcandle.shtml#candle
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/goldcandle.shtml#candle
CURRENCIES
The Yen's strength is the main story today. It is trading near 90.42. The USD-JPY low today has been 90.20. If this Support is broken, a further decline towards 88.50 would be at hand. The previous low is 87.15 seen in Jan-09. The Yen's strength is pulling the Euro-Yen (131.50) and Euro-Dollar (1.4545) down. The Aussie (0.8571) has also come off a bit from last week's high near 0.8680 and may ease further this week.
Needless to say, the Pound (1.6617) has dipped today, trading well below Friday's high near 1.6641. Dollar-Swiss (1.0395) has bounced a bit from Friday's low near 1.0340. The Korean Won is slightly weaker near 1226. Dollar-Rupee had closed near 48.47 on Friday. Expect a range of 48.35-55 today.
INTEREST RATES
3M USD LIBOR was unchanged at 0.30% in Friday as compared to 0.45% a month earlier. The yields on US Treasuries have fallen last week. The 10Y yields have dipped 9 bps. Overall the yields have been falling over the last 4 weeks. The 10Y yields have corrected from 3.76% on 7th Aug to 3.33% today. There are chances of double top on the daily chart of 10Y benchmark yields. To see the chart, click on: http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/usdsin00.shtml#sin00 Lower yields on US Treasuries are beneficial to the home loan borrowers as their interest payments are linked to the 10Y benchmark yields.
Last week the BoE and BoC have kept the key interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and 0.25% respectively.
Asian Market Update
China, US trade accusations on protectionism; Kiwi dollar falls on poor retail sales; Hong Kong, South Korea officials see ongoing need for fiscal, monetary stimulus
Asian equity markets saw some of its recent risk appetite abating in the early Monday session, stroked by retaliation from Chinese authorities on accusations of trade protectionism against the US. Following the Friday move by the Obama administration to authorize new tariffs on car and truck tire imports, officials in China launched an investigation that US autos and chicken products are being dumped in the Chinese markets, helping the indices in Japan, Korea, and Australia pare last week's gains. With just under 2 hours to go in Tokyo, Nikkei225 is leading the slide with an over 2% drop, just as the strength of Japanese Yen continues to impact exporters. S&P/ASX and the Hang Seng are off by about 1%, while both the Kospi and the Taiex are down about 0.7%. Incidentally, Shanghai Composite is the only major regional market in the green, albeit just slightly, unable to gather momentum beyond the psychological 3,000 mark. Ahead of the Monday open in the US, front-month S&Ps are off by 0.9% at 1028.
In notable economic data, New Zealand July retail sales echoed the slide seen late last week in Australia. July headline fell for the first time in 4 months to -0.5% - the worst level since Jan 2009, while ex-auto number was the worst of the year. NZD fell moderately following the release, underperforming the rest of the majors across the board. Over in Japan, July final industrial production rose 2.1% v 1.9% prior, while capacity utilization advanced 3.9% v 2.3% prior.
In equity movers on the Nikkei, Japan Airlines was among the biggest gainers, picking up 7% after an FT report that American Airlines and Delta could take part in buying up as much as $2.8B in equity. Among the decliners, retail sector's Aeon dropped 4% following an 8.9% slide in its August same-store sales. Elsewhere in Japan, a poll of private economists forecasted real GDP in July-Sept period rising as much as 3.4% on an annualized basis, up from 2.3% seen in the prior quarter.
Over in China, NDRC reported an 8.2% increase in electricity usage for the month of August. Also helping matters in Shanghai was the local press report of rising order books and a shortage of labor, even though the feature did attribute worker demand to employer reluctance to add staff amid uncertainty over sustainability of the recovery.
In Australia, Treasurer Swan tempered some of the optimism regarding the jobless rate remaining below 6%, forecasting further increase in unemployment justifying ongoing fiscal stimulus measures. Commodities markets continued to drive major ASX shares, with gold producers Newcrest and Lihir picking up 3% on spot metal rally above $1,000 and energy sector's Santos falling over 2% on $4 two-day slide in front-month crude. On a related note, Shell joined JV partners Chevron and ExxonMobil in approving the Gorgon natural gas project. The development was cheered by the Rudd administration, forecasting as much as A$40B in govt tax revenue and A$300B in export earnings.
Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea Finance Minister Yoon said the government would maintain its 2009 GDP growth forecast of -1.5% and suggested that interest rate tightening by the BOK would be premature. That sentiment follows a mixed central bank message late last week, perceived by the markets as potentially implying a more hawkish stance. Separately, BOK Governor Lee commented on rising volatility in raw materials prices and fund flows complicating an inflation-targeting monetary policy system. Over in Hong Kong, HKMA's Yam was also explicitly cautious about removing stimulus too soon, suggesting the financial system still require government support and warning that an early exit would impede the global recovery.
In currencies, dollar sellers took some profits against the European and commodity majors, while Japanese Yen traded sideways, unable to breach 90.20 USD/JPY intraday low set on Friday. EUR/USD and GBP/USD were down just over 50 pips around 1.4530 and 1.66 at their lowest levels. The Kiwi dollar traded weakest among the majors, falling to 0.6960's and 63.00 vs USD and JPY. Other commodity FX tracked the onset of risk aversion, with AUD/USD falling about 80 pips toward 0.8550 and USD/CAD rising above 1.0850.
Crude oil prices are lower by more than 0.50% and trading below $69/bbl. Crude oil prices are tracking the weakness in equities and the commodity currencies. Spot Gold has moved off of its best levels, which were seen above $1,008/oz on the firmer US dollar. In other metals, Shanghai Copper futures have fallen by as much as the 5% daily limit. The copper decline comes as Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stockpiles rose by 12% last week to more than 97K metric tons.
Today's Key Points
- Asian equity markets decline on the back of strengthening yen and weak economic data.
- The trade 'dispute' between the US and China continues.
- Norwegian elections get under way today. A close result is expected
Markets Overnight
US equity markets ended Friday with a modest loss on the major indices, although the S&P500 posted its biggest weekly gain since July on the back of a rise in the stock price of energy companies and industrial companies due to an expected increase in the demand for oil and on a recommendation from Goldman Sachs. Furthermore, the Vix volatility declined after having seen a short-term rise.
However, sentiment in Asian equity markets is negative this morning on the back of the weak dollar against the yen and lower retail data out of New Zealand. Furthermore, the Australian Treasurer said that unemployment will continue to rise in Australia. Most major Asian stock indices have declined, with the Nikkei down by more than 2% and the Hang Seng down by more than 1%.
US bond yields also continued to decline on the back of the healthy demand at auctions last week. 10Y yields declined almost 8bp on Friday, defying the positive sentiment in the market, higher energy prices and a weak dollar. However, foreign and domestic investors still have a solid demand for Treasuries and nobody likes to be short Treasuries as shown at the auctions last week.
In the FX markets the yen has gained against the dollar, where USD/JPY is testing the 90 level, but there have been modest movements in most major crosses this morning. The trade 'dispute' between China and the US could become a theme as the US is expected to impose tariffs on Chinese tyres and China is looking into the alleged dumping of American auto and chicken products to China. There have been small movements in the Scandi currencies against the euro this morning
September 12th, 2009
Brazilian Real Declines on Economic outlookAfter touching a one-year high versus the greenback this week, the Brazilian currency declined in a corrective movement, as speculations suggested that the wealthiest economy in South America may not provide support for extensions in the current real’s rally.
Even after posting a report indicating growth for the last quarter in Brazil, the real did not manage to extend its gains after touching a one-year high previously this week, as corrective movements and speculations regarding the future of the Brazilian economy weighed on the real’s outlook, which lost more than 1 percent versus the greenback towards the end of this week’s session.
USD/BRL closed at 1.8170 after being traded at 1.8085 earlier this week.
Mexican Peso Drops on Political Crisis
The Mexican peso climbed during this week as risk appetite rose in international trading markets increasing attractiveness for emergent markets assets, but today, after the opposition party attitude towards new taxes, the peso declined.
Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon is struggling to pass a new series of laws in the country that would increase tax on foods and medicines, as a part of the fiscal reform to reestablish the country’s budget. The opposition party affirmed that such measures will not find enough votes to be approved, affecting the Mexican currency performance today.
USD/MXN traded at 13.33 as of 22:03 GMT from a closing rate of 13.37 yesterday.
Dollar Suffers Another Hit as China Posts Industrial Growth
The dollar had a week of extremely negative performance hitting several record lows versus most of the main 16 currencies as demand for yield and investors’ confidence rose worldwide, this time, fueled by two reports in China that added to the already growing optimism in trading markets.Today in Europe, the dollar extended its losses versus the euro as countries like Germany and France are raising attractiveness for assets in the region, as this countries are posting the quickest and most favorable news regarding economic improvements. The British pound also posted significant gains versus the U.S. currency hitting a one month high after producer prices in the United Kingdom climbed for a sixth straight month, suggesting that one of the countries that most suffered with the credit crunch in Europe may be already in a process of recovery, which upgraded the pound’s outlook.
Economists analyze with a certain degree of pessimism the current situation for the U.S. currency. The dollar has been hit massively this week by an outflow of capital towards higher-yielding options, and the sentiment regarding the greenback could not be worse, as most of analysts suggest that the dollar downtrend may proceed further to an undetermined period of time and level, as long as the economic recovery continues.
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